It’s Mercosur, whether we want it or not
Much to the frustration of Irish farmers, the trade deal between the European Union and South America’s Mercosur nations (Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay and Uruguay) will be signed today (17 January, 2026). I don’t want to be the harbinger of despair and, despite what some believe, I don’t expect that the deal spells the end for the Irish beef sector. We have battled strong headwinds before and survived to tell the tale. I don’t doubt that we will have the resilience to survive these ones as well.
That being said, there is no point in sugarcoating it. The move to grant South American beef access to the European market poses a significant challenge for Irish producers. To many of us, it feels as if our livelihoods have been sacrificed at the altar of the EU’s sacred cow (car manufacturing and chemical/pharmaceutical production). At this point, the battle to prevent the deal’s ratification has been unsuccessful; and, as is always the case after suffering a defeat, it is important that the farming community regroups and reassess its position (no matter how bitter the loss may taste).
What does the deal mean for Irish beef?
As bad as the Mercosur deal may seem from the Irish beef farmer’s point of view, it might have been much worse had earlier versions of the agreement been approved. As it now stands, the deal will allow an additional 99,000 tonnes of Mercosur beef to enter the EU market at a significantly reduced tariff of 7.5%. Problematically, this tariff will be reduced to 0% over a six-year period.
The best available studies project that this arrangement will cost the Irish beef sector up to €130 million annually due to downward pressure on prices. Because Mercosur beef is produced to much lower environmental, animal welfare and food safety standards than its European competition, it is likely to be significantly less expensive to buy.
In this context, the Government will have to intervene. Supports will be needed for the Irish beef sector as it adjusts to a new and less favourable reality.
Will the dairy sector be impacted?
While there were some concerns that the Irish dairy sector would also be impacted by the deal, this now seems unlikely. Irish dairy products have a large global market, and Ireland itself imports very small amounts of dairy from the Mercosur region. While some price fluctuation may occur in the aftermath of the deal’s signing, the impact is expected to be minimal.
This will surely be welcome news to Ireland’s dairy farmers, who have endured a turbulent couple of years.
Are there any safeguards in place?
While generally viewed as inadequate by the deal’s many critics, the European Commission has inserted some safeguards to protect European producers. Provisions within the agreement allow the EU to suspend preferential tariffs if there is a sudden surge in imports, leading to market disturbance. For these to be enacted in the event of a disastrous hit to the Irish beef sector, farmers and farming groups will need to be organised and prepared to lobby to force the Commission’s hand.
Arguably of more interest in the short term is the financial supports that may be made available, if market volatility becomes an issue. A crisis fund of up to €6.3 billion has been proposed to help European farmers manage any financial fallout from the deal. Only time will tell if this figure will be sufficient, as there is no other way of accurately predicting the scale of the market disturbance in the offing.
For now, all Irish beef farmers can do is prepare, primarily by putting aside a rainy-day fund where possible; and by organising and supporting their lobbying groups.
A word in solidarity
Here at Agridirect.ie, we would like to take this opportunity to wish the Irish beef sector the very best as it sails into these uncharted waters. In difficult times like these, it is important that the entire farming community stands by our beef producers.
